The Data Source
The most granular public dataset on EPPP candidate performance comes not from ASPPB's published reports, but from federal court exhibits. In Frye v. ASPPB et al. (Case No. 1:25-CV-00236-KES-SKO, E.D. Cal.), the California Board of Psychology submitted 17 years of monthly first-time pass rate data as Attachment A-1. That data is the foundation of this analysis.
This is court-grade evidence, not self-reported statistics. It covers every month from 2006 through 2023 for first-time California candidates, the longest continuous public dataset available on EPPP performance trends.
The 17-Year Trend
The headline number: California first-time pass rates fell from a peak of 65.5% in 2007 to 38.78% in 2023, a decline of 26.72 percentage points, or a 40.8% relative drop over 16 years.
| Year | Pass Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 61.80% | – |
| 2007 | 65.50% | +3.70 pp |
| 2008 | 63.88% | −1.62 pp |
| 2009 | 63.78% | −0.10 pp |
| 2010 | 62.68% | −1.10 pp |
| 2011 | 63.70% | +1.02 pp |
| 2012 | 59.73% | −3.97 pp ⚑ |
| 2013 | 61.80% | +2.07 pp |
| 2014 | 57.82% | −3.98 pp |
| 2015 | 59.60% | +1.78 pp |
| 2016 | 51.24% | −8.36 pp |
| 2017 | 53.17% | +1.93 pp |
| 2018 | 51.09% | −2.08 pp |
| 2019 | 47.16% | −3.93 pp |
| 2020 | 47.08% | −0.08 pp |
| 2021 | 41.83% | −5.25 pp |
| 2022 | 38.83% | −2.99 pp |
| 2023 | 38.78% | −0.05 pp |
⚑ 2012: Year ASPPB publicly stated intent to align psychology licensing with other medical licensing models. Source: Frye v. ASPPB, Attachment A-1 (federal court exhibit).
Three Distinct Periods
The data doesn't show a smooth linear decline; it shows three periods with meaningfully different trajectories:
- 2006–2011 (Stable era): Average pass rate 63.56%. Modest fluctuation, no clear trend.
- 2012–2017 (Early decline): Average 56.53%. The 2012 inflection year coincides with ASPPB's public announcement about aligning with other medical licensing models. Pass rates begin a sustained descent.
- 2018–2023 (Accelerated decline): Average 44.13%. The decline accelerates. By 2021–2023, roughly 60% of California first-time candidates are failing.
The average annual decline from 2012 to 2023 is −1.90 percentage points per year. That is not noise; it is a consistent, sustained downward trend over 11 years.
The Racial Disparity Overlay
Aggregate pass rates mask a significant disparity by race and ethnicity. Sharpless (2019) analyzed 4,892 first-time New York candidates over 25 years using FOIA-obtained data. The findings:
- White candidates: 85.93% pass rate (14.07% fail)
- Black candidates: 61.50% pass rate (38.50% fail)
- Hispanic candidates: 64.40% pass rate (35.60% fail)
Black candidates fail at 2.74 times the rate of white candidates. This disparity has been replicated across multiple studies and has been the subject of ongoing peer-reviewed debate (Saldaña, Callahan & Cox, 2024; Sharpless, 2025).
What the Data Doesn't Tell Us
Honest analysis requires acknowledging what this dataset cannot answer:
- California is one state. Candidate demographics, program types, and board policies differ across jurisdictions. California's trend may not precisely reflect national patterns.
- We don't know why pass rates declined. The data shows the trend; it doesn't identify the cause. Possible factors include changes in the candidate pool composition, changes in exam difficulty, changes in the passing standard, or factors unrelated to the exam itself.
- Pass rate ≠ competence. The relationship between EPPP scores and actual clinical competence is contested in the peer-reviewed literature (Sharpless & Barber, 2009; Saldaña et al., 2024). A declining pass rate may reflect stricter standards, a harder exam, a different candidate pool, or all three.
What This Means for Candidates Preparing Now
The practical implication is straightforward: the exam is harder to pass than it was 10 years ago, by a significant margin. A candidate preparing in 2025 is facing a meaningfully different challenge than a candidate who prepared in 2015, even if the content domains haven't changed.
That means preparation strategies that worked a decade ago may not be sufficient today. The candidates who score above the pass threshold in 2025 are not necessarily those who know the most content; they're the ones who understand how the exam is constructed and have trained specifically against how it fails knowledgeable candidates.
Sources
- California Board of Psychology pass rate data, 2006–2023. Submitted as Attachment A-1 in Frye v. ASPPB et al., 1:25-CV-00236-KES-SKO (E.D. Cal.).
- Sharpless, B.A. (2019). Racial and ethnic differences in EPPP performance. Training and Education in Professional Psychology, 13(4).
- Sharpless, B.A. (2025). Within-program disparities in EPPP performance. Training and Education in Professional Psychology, 19(4), 353–357. DOI: 10.1037/tep0000516
- Saldaña, Callahan, & Cox (2024). Training and Education in Professional Psychology.
- Sharpless, B.A., & Barber, J.P. (2009). Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 40(4), 348–353.