The Data Source
The most granular public dataset on EPPP candidate performance comes not from ASPPB's published reports — but from federal court exhibits. In Frye v. ASPPB et al. (Case No. 1:25-CV-00236-KES-SKO, E.D. Cal.), the California Board of Psychology submitted 17 years of monthly first-time pass rate data as Attachment A-1. That data is the foundation of this analysis.
This is court-grade evidence, not self-reported statistics. It covers every month from 2006 through 2023 for first-time California candidates — the longest continuous public dataset available on EPPP performance trends.
The 17-Year Trend
The headline number: California first-time pass rates fell from a peak of 65.5% in 2007 to 38.78% in 2023 — a decline of 26.72 percentage points, or a 40.8% relative drop over 16 years.
| Year | Pass Rate | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 61.80% | — |
| 2007 | 65.50% | +3.70 pp |
| 2008 | 63.88% | −1.62 pp |
| 2009 | 63.78% | −0.10 pp |
| 2010 | 62.68% | −1.10 pp |
| 2011 | 63.70% | +1.02 pp |
| 2012 | 59.73% | −3.97 pp ⚑ |
| 2013 | 61.80% | +2.07 pp |
| 2014 | 57.82% | −3.98 pp |
| 2015 | 59.60% | +1.78 pp |
| 2016 | 51.24% | −8.36 pp |
| 2017 | 53.17% | +1.93 pp |
| 2018 | 51.09% | −2.08 pp |
| 2019 | 47.16% | −3.93 pp |
| 2020 | 47.08% | −0.08 pp |
| 2021 | 41.83% | −5.25 pp |
| 2022 | 38.83% | −2.99 pp |
| 2023 | 38.78% | −0.05 pp |
⚑ 2012: Year ASPPB publicly stated intent to align psychology licensing with other medical licensing models. Source: Frye v. ASPPB, Attachment A-1 (federal court exhibit).
Three Distinct Periods
The data doesn't show a smooth linear decline — it shows three periods with meaningfully different trajectories:
- 2006–2011 (Stable era): Average pass rate 63.56%. Modest fluctuation, no clear trend.
- 2012–2017 (Early decline): Average 56.53%. The 2012 inflection year coincides with ASPPB's public announcement about aligning with other medical licensing models. Pass rates begin a sustained descent.
- 2018–2023 (Accelerated decline): Average 44.13%. The decline accelerates. By 2021–2023, roughly 60% of California first-time candidates are failing.
The average annual decline from 2012 to 2023 is −1.90 percentage points per year. That is not noise — it is a consistent, sustained downward trend over 11 years.
The Racial Disparity Overlay
Aggregate pass rates mask a significant disparity by race and ethnicity. Sharpless (2019) analyzed 4,892 first-time New York candidates over 25 years using FOIA-obtained data. The findings:
- White candidates: 85.93% pass rate (14.07% fail)
- Black candidates: 61.50% pass rate (38.50% fail)
- Hispanic candidates: 64.40% pass rate (35.60% fail)
Black candidates fail at 2.74 times the rate of white candidates. This disparity has been replicated across multiple studies and has been the subject of ongoing peer-reviewed debate (Saldaña, Callahan & Cox, 2024; Sharpless, 2025).
What the Data Doesn't Tell Us
Honest analysis requires acknowledging what this dataset cannot answer:
- California is one state. Candidate demographics, program types, and board policies differ across jurisdictions. California's trend may not precisely reflect national patterns.
- We don't know why pass rates declined. The data shows the trend; it doesn't identify the cause. Possible factors include changes in the candidate pool composition, changes in exam difficulty, changes in the passing standard, or factors unrelated to the exam itself.
- Pass rate ≠ competence. The relationship between EPPP scores and actual clinical competence is contested in the peer-reviewed literature (Sharpless & Barber, 2009; Saldaña et al., 2024). A declining pass rate may reflect stricter standards, a harder exam, a different candidate pool, or all three.
What This Means for Candidates Preparing Now
The practical implication is straightforward: the exam is harder to pass than it was 10 years ago, by a significant margin. A candidate preparing in 2025 is facing a meaningfully different challenge than a candidate who prepared in 2015 — even if the content domains haven't changed.
That means preparation strategies that worked a decade ago may not be sufficient today. The candidates who score above the pass threshold in 2025 are not necessarily those who know the most content — they're the ones who understand how the exam is constructed and have trained specifically against how it fails knowledgeable candidates.
Sources
- California Board of Psychology pass rate data, 2006–2023. Submitted as Attachment A-1 in Frye v. ASPPB et al., 1:25-CV-00236-KES-SKO (E.D. Cal.).
- Sharpless, B.A. (2019). Racial and ethnic differences in EPPP performance. Training and Education in Professional Psychology, 13(4).
- Sharpless, B.A. (2025). Within-program disparities in EPPP performance. Training and Education in Professional Psychology, 19(4), 353–357. DOI: 10.1037/tep0000516
- Saldaña, Callahan, & Cox (2024). Training and Education in Professional Psychology.
- Sharpless, B.A., & Barber, J.P. (2009). Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 40(4), 348–353.